China economic update September 2026

As reported in the latest article on the European economic outlook, in September, escalating tensions in the Middle East increased risks to trade routes through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, fuelling concerns about disruptions to oil supplies and higher logistics costs. Concerns over supply security helped push the monthly average Brent price above $100/barrel, compared with $88/barrel in August.

The increase in energy prices was also reflected in the Chinese market, supporting a slight recovery in the FOB export index for Total Commodities,^[1] which rose by +0.6% in dollar terms in September. Higher energy prices were only partially passed through to the FOB prices of industrial products, moderating their decline without reversing the downward trend. The China Industrial Index^[2] recorded a month-on-month change of -0.4% in dollar terms, compared with -1.2% in the previous month.
The following chart compares the trends in Chinese export FOB prices, expressed in dollars, for the two aggregate indices.

The decline in FOB prices for Chinese industrial exports over the past two months is mainly attributable to intense competitive pressure in China's manufacturing sector, driven by production capacity exceeding domestic demand. These pressures outweighed the increase in energy prices in September, which was not enough to reverse the downward trend in industrial prices.
Despite the recent decline, Chinese industrial export FOB prices remained significantly higher in September than in the same month of 2025, with year-on-year growth exceeding 19%.

Analysis of Chinese industrial commodities by product category

The following table shows month-on-month changes in the dollar prices of Chinese exports across all product categories included in the industrial commodities aggregate.

Month-on-month changes in Chinese industrial commodity prices by product category, in dollars

The table shows that in September, the steepest price declines affected Chemicals. In particular, Specialty Chemicals recorded the sharpest drop, at -3.4% in dollar terms compared with August.

Among the other product categories, prices for Plastics and Elastomers fell by -0.5%, those for Ferrous Metals remained stable, while Textile Fibres and Non-Ferrous Metals rose by +1.0% and +0.6%, respectively.

Within Textile Fibres, the sharpest increases affected synthetic materials most exposed to input costs linked to the petrochemical supply chain, particularly polyester yarns and polypropylene, which rose by +4.5% and +3.1%, respectively.
Among Non-Ferrous Metals, roasted molybdenum ores stood out, rising by +7.5% compared with August 2026 levels.