Commodity prices between geopolitics and supply imbalances

Weak Chinese demand is pushing down prices for ferrous metals

Published by Luca Sazzini. Oct. 9, 2026 .

Conjunctural Indicators Commodities Financial Week

Stampa

The releases agreed by the G7 countries, involving more than 100 million barrels of oil, initially drove energy prices down, temporarily easing market tensions. However, the prospect of a sustained decline in prices remains contingent on achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. New Houthi attacks have reversed the initial decline, pushing Brent prices higher again.

Supply expectations continue to weigh on prices in both the gasoil and natural gas markets. Gasoil has recovered some of last week's losses, supported by concerns that Russian export restrictions could be extended further. The TTF, meanwhile, is rising mainly because European gas storage levels remain low, leaving the market more exposed to potential supply disruptions.

Financial prices of precious metals have continued to decline, with sharper falls in palladium and platinum. Gold, by contrast, has proved more resilient, supported by continued central bank purchases that sustain demand for the metal as a safe-haven asset.

Among industrial metals, ferrous metals have shown greater weakness, with prices falling week on week in both Europe and China. Weak Chinese demand for steel and deteriorating steelmakers' profitability have put downward pressure on steel prices as Chinese exchanges reopened after the National Day holiday.
Among the steepest declines were those in iron ore prices, mainly reflecting abundant supply in the Chinese market.

Prices in the non-ferrous metals segment have been comparatively stable. The most significant movement has been in copper, whose price continues to rise towards levels close to historical highs, despite particularly high overall inventories in the warehouses of major commodity exchanges. The increase reflects both expectations of stronger demand associated with the green and digital transitions and the concentration of inventories in US warehouses. The latter is linked to concerns about possible tariffs on copper cathode imports into the United States, which have encouraged stockpiling in the country and reduced the immediate availability of the metal in other regions of the world.