LME nickel price forecast

In recent years, nickel price dynamics have been characterized by a phase of gradual decline, which began in 2022 following the sharp increase observed in the post-pandemic period. However, this trend seems to have recently reversed: from mid-December 2025 to today, financial nickel prices have risen by almost 25%.
The main factors behind this trend reversal are related to the increased supply risks from Indonesia, due to the introduction of stricter environmental regulations in the mining sector, as well as temporary production interruptions. These factors have also led to a reduction in available stocks on commodity exchanges, further contributing to price growth.
In this article, we will analyze whether the recent recovery in nickel prices is likely to continue according to analysts’ expectations, or if a scenario of consolidation or correction is more probable, in line with the downward trend that began in 2022.

Implicit Forecasts in Futures Contracts

A first useful source for forecasting is the implicit prediction embedded in futures contracts. This source allows us to know the current price at which sellers/producers are willing to sell a commodity at a future date.
The following chart shows a comparison between the LME nickel spot price and its futures contract expiring in December 2027.

Comparison of LME Nickel Spot and Futures Prices

Comparing LME nickel spot and futures prices shows that the market is currently in a contango phase, meaning a condition in which the futures price is higher than the spot price. Specifically, the LME nickel futures contract for December 2027 delivery is currently $18680/ton, 6.5% higher than the current spot price of $17535/ton.
The contango situation does not necessarily imply that the financial market expects price increases, as it also reflects storage and financial costs associated with purchasing the commodity for future use. However, it provides an indication that the market does not anticipate significant downward corrections in prices.

World Bank Forecasts

The second forecasting source considered in this analysis is the World Bank, which is a useful reference for assessing the potential equilibrium price between supply and demand.
The following chart shows the latest annual World Bank forecast for the LME nickel spot price, updated to October 2025.

World Bank Forecasts for the LME Nickel Spot Price

As early as October of last year, World Bank analysts predicted a halt to the declining price trend that had characterized nickel over the past three years, with a recovery expected in 2026 and 2027. For these years, the World Bank forecasts an increase in average annual prices, reaching $15500 and $16000/ton, respectively.

Consensus Economics Forecasts

The third forecasting source examined in this analysis is Consensus Economics, which allows building a forecast range for LME nickel prices and monitoring its evolution over time across different surveys.
The chart below shows the distributions of LME nickel prices expected for December 2026, based on the January 2025 and January 2026 surveys, highlighting how the forecast range has changed from one year to the next.

Analysis of the survey from one year ago (January 2025), conducted on a sample of 21 forecasters, showed an extremely wide price range for December 2026, between $15000 and $23,280/ton, with an expected average of approximately $17500/ton.
One year later, the most recent January 2026 survey indicates an expected average price for December 2026 of about $16000/ton, with a much narrower forecast range, between $14500 and $19000/ton.
This latest survey thus signals not only a downward revision of nickel growth expectations from one year to the next but also an expected average price for December 2026 lower than the current spot price of around $17500/ton.

PricePedia Forecasts

PricePedia forecasts for LME nickel are obtained by synthesizing the sources described above, prioritizing first financial expectations, then Consensus Economics forecasts, and finally World Bank forecasts.
The following chart shows the PricePedia forecast scenario for LME nickel spot prices, updated with information available up to January 8, 2026.

PricePedia Forecast Scenario for LME Nickel Spot Prices

PricePedia anticipates a gradual recovery in nickel prices over the next two years, in line with World Bank forecasts. In terms of annual averages, PricePedia forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are $16000 and $17000/ton, respectively, placing them between World Bank estimates and the current LME futures value for December 2027.
On a monthly basis, a gradual and moderate price increase is expected, reaching $16500/ton by the end of 2026, and rising to nearly $17500/ton by the end of 2027.
These forecasts are consistent with the expected averages indicated in the latest Consensus Economics survey, approximately $16000/ton for December 2026 and $17000/ton for December 2027.

Conclusions

The information derived from the analysis of forecasts from the various sources leads to the following widely shared opinions:

1. Global nickel supply and demand reached a partial equilibrium during 2025, halting the price decline that characterized 2023-2024 and the first part of 2025;
2. In the coming years, a slight recovery in demand, combined with a more "sticky" supply, should result in a modest price growth path;
3. At the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026, financial markets anticipated the expected recovery in the following years.

Based on these consensus opinions, the PricePedia scenario predicts a path of nickel price growth, reaching approximately $16500/ton by the end of 2026, and rising to about $17500/ton by the end of 2027.
In terms of annual averages, nickel prices are forecast at $16000/ton for 2026 and $17000/ton for 2027.