The reaction of commodity markets to the results of the U.S. midterm elections

The Democrats' victory in the United States reduces geopolitical risk

Published by Luca Sazzini. Nov. 6, 2026 .

Conjunctural Indicators Commodities Financial Week

Stampa

The outcome of the US midterm elections, with a clear victory for the Democrats, helped ease market concerns in the energy sector over a possible escalation of the conflict with Iran. The Republicans' electoral defeat increases Trump's political incentives to seek a diplomatic solution, fuelling expectations of a gradual normalisation of oil exports from the Middle East and reducing the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude oil prices.
Overall, the entire energy sector was characterised by a widespread decline in prices, which also affected European natural gas, despite low temperatures and the start of the heating season, with the first withdrawals beginning to draw down inventories.

By contrast, precious metal prices recovered, with gold moving back above $4000 per ounce, supported by falling energy prices. Demand for gold from central banks remains high, but in the short term prices will continue to be influenced primarily by expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy stance, fuelled by recent inflationary pressures.

Among industrial metals, a slight increase was recorded in ferrous metals, while non-ferrous metals underwent a correction. The steepest declines affected tin and copper, two base metals particularly closely linked to the semiconductor industry and the development of artificial intelligence. The Democrats' victory fuelled expectations of a slowdown in investment in data centre construction. This scenario triggered stock market corrections in Big Tech and semiconductor manufacturers, partially affecting the prices of metals used in their construction.

In the agricultural commodities sector, prices declined across all three main categories: cereals, tropical products and edible oils.
In the cereals sector, supply risks from the Black Sea region partially eased amid expectations of possible diplomatic developments in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Among tropical products, prices were mainly affected by improved production prospects and greater expected availability of coffee and cocoa, following the recovery of harvests in the main producing countries. Edible oils, on the other hand, followed the decline in energy prices, particularly those used in biodiesel production. These oils represent an alternative to fossil fuels and therefore tend to be affected by changes in oil prices.

NUMERICAL APPENDIX

ENERGY

The PricePedia financial index of energy products shows a price correction, in line with the reduction in the geopolitical risk premium.

PricePedia Financial Index of Energy Prices in US Dollars

PricePedia Financial Indices of Energy Prices

The energy heatmap turns green, reflecting the extent of the price decline.

HeatMap of Energy Prices in Euro

PLASTICS AND ELASTOMERS

The PricePedia financial index of plastics and elastomers breaks its upward trend due to the decline in energy prices.

PricePedia Financial Index of Plastics and Elastomer Prices in US Dollars

The heatmap highlights a widespread decline in prices.

HeatMap of Plastics and Elastomer Prices in Euro

PRECIOUS METALS

The financial index of precious metals shows a recovery in prices, confirming the recent negative correlation with energy prices.

PricePedia Financial Index of Precious Metal Prices in US Dollars

The precious metals heatmap shows a slight increase in gold prices.

HeatMap of Precious Metal Prices in Euro

FERROUS METALS

Despite fluctuations, both ferrous metal indices show a weekly increase in prices.

PricePedia Financial Indices of Ferrous Metal Prices in US Dollars

The heatmap analysis highlights an increase in European hot-rolled coil prices and Chinese iron ore and stainless steel coil prices. By contrast, rebar and wire rod prices declined.