Commodity markets between supply risks and geopolitical uncertainty

The strength of the U.S. economy is bolstering expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy

Published by Luca Sazzini. Sept. 25, 2026 .

Conjunctural Indicators Commodities Financial Week

Stampa

Expectations of higher Saudi exports, progress in US-Iran talks and a larger-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories contributed to a decline in oil prices over the week.
Supply concerns nevertheless remain elevated. Disruptions to the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia could limit crude oil availability at Yanbu for several weeks, while production at Libya's Sharara oil field has declined following the shutdown of the pipeline to the Zawiya terminal. These factors are compounded by Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and statements by Yahya Rahim Safavi, military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, according to whom any resumption of US or Israeli attacks could extend the conflict to the Indian Ocean, creating new risks for major oil shipping routes.
Supply-side tensions therefore continue to support Brent oil prices, which closed the week at $104/barrel.

In the distillates market, diesel prices declined, also following the White House's denial of reports that the United States was preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports. Supply concerns nevertheless remain elevated in this market as well. Trump has expressed support for limiting or banning diesel exports, while Russia could further extend its own export restrictions.

Financial prices of precious metals declined, driven by a stronger dollar and higher yields on the 10-year Treasury, which reached 5.19%, the highest level since July 2007.
The sharp increase in the US PMI, well above expectations, highlighted the resilience of the US economy and strengthened expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy stance by the Fed, which may place greater emphasis on containing inflation. These factors contributed to a decline in gold prices, despite continued strong demand from central banks.

The ferrous metals sector shows relatively stable prices, while a predominantly upward trend prevails among non-ferrous metals.
Copper moved closer to its all-time highs, closing the week at $14,740/tonne on the London Metal Exchange. The increase was supported by stronger Chinese demand, which brought cathode inventories in Shanghai to their lowest level since 2023. Purchases also increased ahead of the holidays at the end of September and beginning of October, while the Yangshan import premium reached its highest level in recent years.
Other non-ferrous metals also followed a predominantly upward trend. Zinc benefited from supply concerns following Nyrstar's announcement of a strategic review of its Budel smelter operations in the Netherlands. Nickel prices continue to be affected by uncertainty surrounding Indonesian production, while tin maintained a positive trend, supported by still relatively tight market conditions.

NUMERICAL APPENDIX

ENERGY

Excluding fluctuations related to geopolitical developments, the PricePedia financial index of energy products recorded a weekly decline.

PricePedia Financial Index of Energy Prices in Dollars

PricePedia Financial Indices of Energy Prices

The energy heatmap shows a weekly decline in the prices of Chinese oil, WTI, diesel and TTF, while US Henry Hub natural gas prices increased. The increase in US gas prices was supported by lower US production and forecasts of lower temperatures, which could increase heating demand.

HeatMap of Energy Prices in Euros

PRECIOUS METALS

The financial index of precious metals followed a weekly decline in prices, linked to expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy stance by the Fed.