From Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb, tensions are rising over energy commodity prices

Increased supply is driving down cobalt prices

Published by Luca Sazzini. Nov. 9, 2026 .

Conjunctural Indicators Commodities Financial Week

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This week, geopolitical tensions continued to intensify, with several attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz fueling concerns over the security of crude oil flows. The Iran-backed Houthis have also taken control of the port of Mocha and seized the island of Mayun, strengthening their position at the entrance to Bab el-Mandeb.
The main concern is that they could extend their control over the strait, one of the world's main energy chokepoints and a key route for Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports. The increase in geopolitical risk has widened the risk premium in oil markets, bringing Brent close to the $110/barrel threshold during the week.
Increases were even more pronounced in the European natural gas market, with TTF reaching €82/MWh, its highest level since December 2022. The attacks by Ukrainian drones on several gas processing facilities in Russia's Yamal-Nenets region contributed to the increase in prices.

The precious metals sector recorded a decline in prices following the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
The decline in safe-haven assets was not so much attributable to the 25-basis-point rate hike, which had already been priced in by the market, as to the uncertainty that emerged over the future course of monetary policy. The ECB revised its inflation forecasts upwards, leaving the possibility of further rate hikes open. If energy inflation linked to tensions in the Middle East were to persist, the ECB could be forced to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy or raise rates further. Conversely, a rapid easing of energy prices would reduce the need for further rate hikes and could make another monetary tightening excessively restrictive given economic conditions.

The ferrous metals sector followed a decline in prices over the course of the week, while non-ferrous metals, after an initial increase, recorded a marked decline in recent days. Among industrial metals, the sharpest decline concerned cobalt. The quota system introduced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo is recording lower-than-expected utilization, while exports from ASM (Artisanal and Small-scale Mining) mines increased in the first half of 2026. These factors have reduced concerns over metal scarcity, leading to an almost 13% weekly correction in the price of cobalt on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

The copper market recorded an overall decline in prices, despite reaching new intraday all-time highs on the LME during the week. The decline was driven both by expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy by the ECB and by uncertainty over the United States' decision regarding tariffs on refined copper imports.
The reduction in the risk premium related to US tariffs priced into the market led to an almost 5% decline in the price of copper on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Thursday alone.