Cobalt: is the price decline set to continue?

In 2025, cobalt was the non-ferrous metal to record the strongest increase on the London Metal Exchange (LME), more than doubling in price over the course of the year. The sharp increase was driven by a marked tightening of global supply, caused by export restrictions introduced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world’s leading cobalt supplier.
Between January and August 2026, prices then stabilized, remaining consistently above $55 500/tonne. Over the past month, however, the trend reversed and cobalt prices fell by more than 30% in absolute terms, dropping back below $38 500/tonne. The decline can be attributed to the recovery in cobalt supply from the DRC and weaker Chinese demand, partly due to the growing adoption of LFP batteries, which do not use cobalt.

The recent change in market conditions therefore makes it interesting to assess whether the decline in cobalt prices is set to continue over the next two years or whether it is merely a temporary correction. This article analyzes several forecasting sources with the aim of identifying the most likely price levels by the end of 2027.
LME cobalt prices will be used as the reference, as they represent the main global financial benchmark.

Expectations of financial markets implied by futures contracts

The first forecasting source analyzed is the expectations implied by futures contracts, which reflect the current price at which sellers are willing to commit to delivering a given product on a future date.
The chart below compares the LME cobalt spot price with the corresponding futures contract expiring in December 2027.

Comparison of LME cobalt spot and futures prices

The LME cobalt futures price for delivery in December 2027 stands at $40 760/tonne, above the spot price of $38 445/tonne, indicating a market in contango. This difference between spot and futures prices does not necessarily imply expectations of higher prices, as it also incorporates financing and storage costs, but it indicates that the market does not expect a significant reduction in prices by December 2027.

Consensus Economics forecast

The second source considered is Consensus Economics, which makes it possible to construct a forecast range based on surveys of several analysts specializing in commodities. Comparing surveys conducted on different dates also makes it possible to monitor changes in analysts’ expectations over time.
The chart below shows the distribution of forecasts for the LME cobalt price in December 2027, comparing the January and September 2026 surveys.

Despite the recent recovery in DRC exports and the decline in Chinese demand for cobalt, the September 21 survey shows higher forecasts for the LME cobalt futures price expiring in December 2027 than those reported in the January surveys.
The new forecast range is between $22 and $27/lb, with an average of $24.1/lb, above the $22.8/lb reported in the January survey.
Converting these values into $/tonne, the forecast range is between $48 500 and $59 500/tonne. All analysts surveyed therefore expect the price to be above current cobalt price levels. The spot price, at $38 445/tonne, is in fact more than $10 000/tonne below the lower end of the forecast range for December 2027.

PricePedia forecast scenario

The PricePedia scenario for LME cobalt is developed based on the information presented above, combining the Consensus Economics forecasts with the latest expectations of financial markets.
The chart below shows the PricePedia forecast scenario for LME cobalt, expressed in $/tonne.

PricePedia scenario for LME cobalt spot prices

PricePedia expects cobalt prices to recover over the coming months, followed by stabilization at levels above current prices. In terms of annual averages, prices are expected to stand at around $52 000 and $51 000/tonne in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
By December 2027, the cobalt price is expected to reach around $53 000/tonne, a level close to the midpoint of the range outlined by Consensus Economics.

Conclusions

The different forecasting sources analyzed converge on the expectation of a recovery in cobalt prices from current levels. In particular, all analysts surveyed by Consensus Economics in September expect the price in December 2027 to be significantly higher than the current spot price.
The differences between the forecasts therefore concern not the direction of prices, but the extent of their recovery, with a range between $48 500 and $59 500/tonne.
The PricePedia scenario lies in the middle of this range, with an expected LME cobalt price of around $53 000/tonne in December 2027.