Uncertainty in the commodity markets remains high

Commodity prices show divergent trends

Published by Luca Sazzini. Sept. 18, 2026 .

Conjunctural Indicators Commodities Financial Week

Stampa

The financial prices of oil did not record significant increases over the course of the week, despite the continuation of the military escalation and the closure of the Saudi East-West pipeline, which further fuelled concerns about global crude oil supply. The risk premium was mitigated by the resumption of Saudi oil exports through Oman and the rapid progress of pipeline repair works, with Riyadh aiming to restore around half of its capacity within a few days.

Precious metals maintained a negative correlation with energy prices, declining in the first part of the week before recovering in recent days. The Federal Reserve's rate hike and statements by its new Chair, Kevin Warsh, who has placed inflation at the centre of monetary policy priorities, had already been partly priced into the decline in safe-haven assets observed in the first few days. The subsequent recovery in prices was instead supported by lower energy prices, which helped moderate expectations for inflation and interest rates, supporting safe-haven assets.

In the ferrous metals segment, prices declined in Europe, while they increased in China, driven by the recovery in demand ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays.
In the non-ferrous metals sector, a trend similar to that of precious metals can be observed, with prices overall remaining stable on a weekly basis. The exception is cobalt, which continues the price decline that began last week, due to lower-than-expected use of the quota system introduced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the increase in exports from ASM (Artisanal and Small-scale Mining) operations during the first half of 2026.

The cereals market recorded the most pronounced price changes, with oats traded on the CME up 14% from last Friday. This movement can be attributed to the sharp decline in oat production in Canada, the world's leading supplier.
Other significant increases affected corn and soybeans, following new data showing a decline in global wheat production and an increase in Chinese soybean imports, which reached 1 million tonnes in a single week.
The tropical products market followed an opposite trend to cereals, although less pronounced, driven by the decline in Arabica coffee prices. Since the beginning of September, Brazilian exports have reached significantly higher levels, supported by favourable weather conditions.

NUMERICAL APPENDIX

ENERGY

The PricePedia financial index of energy products is showing a slowdown in the pace of price growth.

PricePedia Financial Index of Energy Prices in Dollars

PricePedia Financial Indices of Energy Prices

The energy heatmap highlights an increase in the prices of Chinese oil, gasoline and Asian JKM natural gas, alongside a decline in European natural gas prices.