New tensions in the molybdenum market

In the article Molybdenum: a potentially critical commodity for the EU, it was highlighted that molybdenum is among the commodities monitored by the European Union for possible future inclusion in the list of critical raw materials, although it is not currently part of the official list.
Molybdenum is a metal of significant economic importance for the steel industry, whose European supply depends entirely on imports, as there is no significant mining production within the EU.
This dependence on external supply is particularly relevant given the high geographical concentration of global production: more than 90% of the world's molybdenum production is concentrated in the five leading producing countries, which are also the world's main exporters. As a result, a change in production policies or a supply disruption in just one of these countries could reduce the availability of molybdenum on the international market and lead to a significant increase in prices.
This scenario materialized in 2026, when spot prices for molybdenum oxide recorded the strongest increase among the commodities traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) since the beginning of the year, rising by more than 40%, from USD 22.7 to USD 32 per pound.

In this article, we analyze the international price trends of the various molybdenum products traded across the world's main industrial regions (Europe, the United States, and Asia), identifying the key factors behind the current market dynamics.

International Molybdenum Price Analysis

The table below reports the percentage changes in molybdenum prices, expressed in euros, from the beginning of the year to the latest available data, based on customs data from the European Union, the United States, China, and Japan.

The table shows that, since the beginning of the year, nearly all molybdenum prices have recorded significant increases, with the exception of the CIF price of molybdenum ores in China and the two CIF prices of molybdates in the United States. The largest increase was recorded by the US FOB price of roasted molybdenum concentrates, which rose by approximately 70% compared with January levels.
In the other cases, price changes were relatively consistent across the different geographical areas, confirming a widespread upward trend at the global level, although less pronounced than that recorded by the corresponding financial benchmark traded on the LME.
On average, the strongest increases affected products at the upstream stages of the value chain, particularly molybdenum ores and roasted molybdenum concentrates, while molybdates and ferromolybdenum recorded the smallest price increases.

Main Drivers Behind the Rise in Molybdenum Prices

The current increase in molybdenum prices is the result of a combination of factors affecting both global demand and supply.
On the demand side, one supporting factor is the substitution effect. Molybdenum is a substitute for tungsten in certain semiconductor applications related to artificial intelligence. The recent sharp increase in tungsten prices, analyzed in the article "Conflicting signals in regional tungsten prices between Asia and Europe", has encouraged interest in substitute materials, including molybdenum.

An additional source of demand comes from the growing use of molybdenum in the defense and aerospace industries, as well as in technologies related to the energy transition. Molybdenum is an essential component of the specialty steels used in offshore wind farms, photovoltaic installations, and turbines designed for green hydrogen production.

However, these demand-side pressures are facing an inelastic supply, amplifying their impact on prices. The ability of supply to respond to higher demand is constrained by the fact that a significant share of molybdenum is produced as a by-product of copper mining. Consequently, even in the presence of strong price increases, such as those observed in 2026, molybdenum production does not necessarily expand proportionally, since it largely depends on the performance of the copper industry.

This structural rigidity has been compounded by the export restrictions introduced by China in 2025, the world's largest producer of molybdenum. As part of the export controls applied to several strategic raw materials, the Chinese government also made exports of certain molybdenum products subject to prior authorization. Introduced in the context of trade tensions with the United States, these measures have increased uncertainty regarding the availability of the metal on international markets.

Finally, the increase in energy costs, driven by the geopolitical crisis in the Persian Gulf, has raised molybdenum production costs, further reinforcing the upward price pressures discussed above.