Monthly commodity prices update for June 2026

After more than 100 days of conflict, the United States and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on June 19, 2026, officially ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the agreement, crude oil and refined product prices entered a downward trend, anticipating the gradual restoration of trade flows through the Strait. By last Friday, Brent crude had returned to its pre-conflict level of around USD 72 per barrel (see our weekly market update). Overall, the average Brent price in June declined by more than 17% compared with the previous month.

The improvement in the geopolitical environment was quickly reflected in European physical energy commodity prices, which fell by -9.3% in June compared with May, in line with expectations of a recovery in shipping activity across the Persian Gulf. This trend also affected the euro-denominated prices of the commodities monitored by PricePedia, which overall recorded a -3.9% decline compared with their average levels in May 2026.

The chart below shows the price trends, in euros, of European-market raw materials for the main PricePedia aggregates, indexed to January 2022 = 100: Commodity^[1], Industrials^[2], Energy, and Food.

As the chart shows, despite the optimism following the peace agreement and the subsequent price correction, both energy commodities and the overall commodity index remained well above their pre-conflict averages recorded in February 2026, by more than 18% and 11%, respectively.

Food commodity prices, by contrast, remained broadly stable overall, edging down by just -0.4% in June compared with May. However, performance varied across segments: Tropical Commodities declined by 3.4%, while Milk and Dairy Products rose by 11%.

Prices for core industrial commodities continued to increase in euro terms during June (+1.2% month-on-month), although at a slower pace than in the previous month.
Unlike energy commodities, which have partly priced in the optimism surrounding the US-Iran agreement, industrial commodity markets continue to be driven primarily by supply-side constraints. This is particularly evident for commodities whose production is concentrated in Gulf countries and/or whose supply chains rely on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has not yet fully returned to pre-conflict levels.

Industrial Commodity Price Trends Since the Beginning of the Conflict

The dynamics described above for industrial commodities are illustrated in the chart below, which shows the percentage changes in euro-denominated prices for the main industrial subcategories between February and June 2026.

With the exception of Pharmaceutical Chemicals, all major industrial commodity categories recorded higher euro-denominated physical prices between February and June 2026.
The strongest increases were observed in Plastics and Elastomers, where prices rose by more than 22%, followed by Organic Chemicals, up 15.6%.
Price increases for the remaining categories remained below 10%, broadly in line with the outlook presented in our May 2026 market update.

Conclusions

The US-Iran agreement has triggered the first downward corrections in commodity prices, with the most immediate response occurring in energy markets, where prices quickly reflected expectations of a normalization in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Industrial commodity markets, however, continue to be driven primarily by supply conditions, with scarcity effects still outweighing improving sentiment. Against this backdrop, the future direction of industrial commodity prices will largely depend on the effective implementation of the peace agreement and the gradual recovery of commercial traffic through the Strait.