Energy shock and the furniture industry

In the article Raw material costs and prices in the furniture industry, it was highlighted how, in the 2024–2025 period, the decline in commodity prices helped reduce the share of materials in the overall costs of the furniture industry. Based on the forecast scenario prepared in early February, the impact of purchasing material price dynamics on total sector costs for 2026–2027 was expected to remain relatively limited.

However, geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, linked to the conflict between the United States–Israel coalition and Iran, and the resulting energy shock have triggered a new surge in energy commodity prices and significant increases for products most exposed to petrochemical and natural gas supply chains. This led to an upward revision of the forecasts contained in the PricePedia Scenario (see the April 2026 update).

In light of these developments, it is useful to analyse how the price dynamics of purchasing materials for the furniture industry are expected to evolve and how they will affect the sector's overall costs.

The evolution of the purchasing materials price scenario

The following charts compare the current scenario with the one published in February 2026, for both energy commodities and the industrial commodities purchased by the furniture industry.

Comparison of forecast scenarios, indices in Euro (2022=100)

Energy commodities

Commodities for the furniture industry

In the February 2026 scenario, energy commodity prices were expected to stabilise in 2027 at levels similar to those of 2019, within a context of excess supply in global markets. The economic consequences of the conflict have led to an upward revision of the sector outlook, with 2026 forecasts now showing an annual increase of more than +19% (previously -12%). In 2027, prices are expected to record an average annual decline of -12%, although levels will remain more than 20% higher than the 2019 average.

An upward revision has also affected non-energy commodities relevant to the furniture sector. For 2026, prices are now expected to rise by +6.3% (from +1.4% in the pre-conflict scenario), while for 2027 the expected annual increase stands at +5.3%, compared with a February forecast of below +4%.

Cost incidence of purchasing materials

Considering the cost breakdown of the furniture industry described in the article Commodity prices and their impact on the furniture industry, it is possible to measure how purchasing material costs will affect the sector over the next two years.

The following table reports the contribution of price increases for different materials to the overall cost dynamics of the furniture industry (industrial commodities and energy) and compares their evolution with the pre-conflict scenario.

Tab. 1 Furniture industry: comparison of scenarios for direct and indirect material costs (%, change)

In the latest scenario, the overall increase in furniture industry costs linked to rising commodity prices (both energy and industrial) is expected to be stronger than pre-conflict estimates: in 2026 the projected change rises to +2.4% compared with the previously estimated +0.2%, and in 2027 it stands at around +1.5% versus the earlier forecast of +1.2%.
Finally, comparison with previous years highlights that, over the next two years, the contribution of materials to cost dynamics is expected to remain relatively more contained than during the exceptional 2021–2022 cycle.