The price dynamics of MDF panels over the next 24 months

MDF panel prices experienced a sharp increase in the 2021-2022 biennium, driven by a surge in the costs of raw materials used in their production, such as wood fibers (or wood flakes) and the resins used as adhesives. In May-June 2022, prices exceeded 600 euros per ton, in some cases doubling the average values recorded in the previous decade.
Among the factors that led to the rise in MDF panel production costs, in addition to the energy crisis - which strongly impacted natural gas derivatives such as urea (a base component of main resins) - was the reduced availability of raw materials from Russia, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.

The chart below shows the price trend of MDF panels based on European customs data, expressed in euros per ton.

MDF Panels: European market prices, in Euros per Ton

The weakening of raw material demand that hit Europe starting in the second half of 2022 triggered a downward phase in MDF panel prices, which, however, was less intense than the decrease in cost trends. The new level at which prices stabilized averages over 430 euros per ton, which is 40% higher than the average prices of 2019, despite costs having returned closer to 2019 levels.

The relative rigidity of MDF panel prices with respect to the costs of raw materials used in their production was documented in the article Cost Pass-Through in Wood Panels and can be attributed to multiple factors, including their use in highly differentiated sectors such as furniture.

The forecast for MDF panel prices over the next two years

The relationship between the price of MDF panels and its determining factors was estimated in the article "Russia effect" on wooden panels. Based on this model, it is possible to develop a forecast of MDF panel prices for the next 24 months, allowing an assessment of whether prices will continue along the downward path observed over the past two years or move toward a new normal characterized by higher price levels.

In the annual average of 2025, MDF panel prices are expected to decline by approximately -4% compared to 2024 values, reflecting the decrease also occurring in cost dynamics.

Over the next two years, however, prices are expected to increase again, by around +8%. The scenario is therefore characterized by MDF panel prices remaining significantly higher than 2019 levels.

The following table shows the percentage change rates in the euro price of MDF panels compared to the 2019 average.

Table 1: Percentage change (%) in MDF panel prices, in euros, compared to the 2019 average

Considering the 2019 average, panel prices are expected to remain more than +30% higher throughout this year. The gap from 2019 levels is also expected to widen during 2026 and the first four months of 2027, when prices are projected to stabilize in the range of 467-516 euros per ton.