PricePedia scenario for ferrous metals 2026-2027

The PricePedia scenario published in January 2026 and analyzed in the article: “PricePedia Scenario for January 2026”, outlines, for the 2026-2027 biennium, a general framework overall oriented downward for commodity prices, with the exception of industrial metals, which are expected to rise. The most significant increase is expected for non-ferrous metals, while ferrous metals, which have gone through a prolonged period of weakness in recent years, should only experience a partial recovery in prices.
The following chart shows the PricePedia forecast scenario for the aggregated European ferrous metals index, updated with information available until January 8, 2026.

PricePedia Forecast of the Total European Ferrous Metals Index

After years of decline, PricePedia expects a recovery in European ferrous metal prices over the next two years, driven by several factors:

• Increased demand related to the energy transition: green technologies and the infrastructures required for the energy transition, such as wind farms, photovoltaic plants, and storage networks, require high quantities of ferrous metals for implementation.
• Price recovery in China: as highlighted in the article: “China economic update October 2025”, after years of decline, ferrous metal prices in China appear to have reached a price floor. Fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market recovery should support ferrous metal prices. The recovery of the Chinese market also influences international price dynamics, with upward effects on the European market.
• Entry into force of the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism): with the introduction of the new European carbon adjustment mechanism, certain imported steel products will be subject to a cost linked to their carbon footprint, aligned with what European producers pay under the ETS (Emissions Trading System). This measure will result in higher prices for imported ferrous metals,^[1] helping to support price levels in the European domestic market.

Analysis of Ferrous Metals by Product Category

To evaluate the future price dynamics of ferrous metals, it can be useful to also examine the individual product categories included in the aggregated European total ferrous metals index, in order to identify those expected to experience the highest price growth over the next two years.
The following table shows the annual percentage change in the prices of PricePedia product categories included in the aggregate of total European ferrous metals.

Table of Annual Percentage Changes in Ferrous Metals Product Categories

After the sharp reductions^[2] recorded in previous years, all product categories included in the aggregated European ferrous metals index are expected to enter a phase of price recovery over the next two years, with the exception of wire rod, whose price is expected to realign with the financial prices of Turkish steel rebar quoted on the LME.
In 2026, the product categories expected to record the largest increases compared to 2025 levels are hot-rolled coils, welded steel pipes, and steel semi-finished products, with annual variations of 8.1%, 6.4%, and 5.1%, respectively.
In 2027, by contrast, the most significant increases are expected for ferroalloys, steel pipes (both welded and seamless), and steel semi-finished products, with changes in annual averages, compared to the 2026 average, ranging from a minimum of 5.4% y/y for steel semi-finished products to over 7% y/y for ferroalloys.

These forecasts are consistent with recent Chinese macroeconomic data and with the current dynamics of ferrous metals financial markets, which have already entered a new phase of trend reversal.