Precious metals at historic highs due to US-Venezuela tensions

This week, financial energy prices continued their downward trend. The price of oil recorded a decline driven by excess supply on the market and by statements from President Trump, according to whom an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine would now be imminent following the Berlin talks. However, new trade tensions between the United States and Venezuela contributed to a partial recovery in Brent quotations in recent days, even though prices continue to hover around $60 per barrel.

The United States announced a complete naval blockade against sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, declaring its readiness to stop, seize, or prevent the departure and arrival of vessels included in U.S. restrictive lists. These ships are accused of transporting oil in violation of international sanctions or of being part of the shadow fleet.
The blockade represents a form of economic and military pressure aimed at reducing Caracas’ oil exports and targeting the funding sources of Nicolás Maduro’s government. The Venezuelan president harshly criticized the U.S. measures, calling them warmongering and colonialist; similar criticism came from Russia, which deemed the initiative unilateral and potentially dangerous, urging the Trump administration to avoid a “fatal mistake.”
Additional factors that supported oil prices in recent days included the weekly increase in U.S. inventories and expectations of tighter U.S. sanctions against Russia should Putin fail to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine.

The sector that recorded the largest movements following the escalation between the United States and Venezuela, however, was not energy but precious metals. Both gold and silver reached new all-time highs, with prices quoted at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 4,361 and 66.8 $/ounce, respectively. The largest weekly increases, however, were recorded by platinum and palladium, which at the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached levels of 1,944 and 1,694 $/ounce, respectively.

Among industrial metals, growth was observed in ferrous metals quoted in China, with more pronounced increases in prices for wire rod, steel rebar, and iron ore. In Europe, by contrast, ferrous metal prices remained more stable over the week, with slight fluctuations in opposite directions.
Non-ferrous metals slowed their price growth phase, with the exception of tin, which this week at the LME surpassed the threshold of $48,000 per ton.
The price of aluminum instead remains stable despite news of the closure of the Mozal smelter in Mozambique due to its inability to guarantee electricity supply.

In the agricultural commodities sector, a generalized downward price trend is evident, particularly for tropical commodities. The increase in the coffee harvest in Vietnam, new cocoa shipments from Ivory Coast, and higher sugar production in India led to a marked weekly price contraction.
Among cereals, the decline in wheat stands out, linked to rising expectations of peace in Ukraine. Soybean prices, both beans and oils, also recorded a weekly decline, supported by increased Brazilian production and the start of soybean sales from China’s state reserves, aimed at freeing up storage capacity ahead of upcoming shipments from the United States.

Baltic Dry Index

In December, the cost of maritime transport for dry bulk carriers, measured by the Baltic Dry Index, declined again, as shown in the chart below.

Baltic Dry Index

Analysis of the chart highlights the recent shift in the Baltic Dry Index trend. After recording increases of over 150% from the beginning-of-year levels, the index resumed its decline, posting a drop of more than 20% from December 3 to today.

U.S. Economic Outlook

Unemployment

In the United States, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since 2021, beating analysts’ expectations and indicating a slowdown in the labor market. Although the economy added around 64,000 jobs, these gains were offset by significant losses recorded in previous months and by an overall weak labor market.

Inflation

U.S. consumer inflation came in lower than expected (3.1% y/y), with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by “only” 2.7% year-on-year. Analysts, however, suggest interpreting this figure with caution, as data collection was distorted by a prolonged federal government shutdown that may have compromised data quality.

ENERGY

The PricePedia financial energy index continues its downward price trend.

PricePedia Financial Index of Energy Prices, in dollars

Analysis of the energy heatmap shows a generalized decline for most energy prices.

Energy Price HeatMap, in euros

PRECIOUS METALS

The precious metals financial index reaches new all-time highs due to renewed tensions between the United States and Venezuela.

PricePedia Financial Index of Precious Metals Prices, in dollars

The precious metals heatmap turns red, signaling a strong generalized increase, especially for platinum and palladium.

Precious Metals Price HeatMap, in euros

FERROUS METALS

The China ferrous metals index records a weekly increase, while the European index remains more stable.

PricePedia Financial Indices of Ferrous Metals Prices, in dollars

Heatmap analysis highlights rising prices for Chinese iron ore, steel rebar, and SHFE wire rod.

Ferrous Metals Price HeatMap, in euros

INDUSTRIAL NON-FERROUS METALS

The two non-ferrous industrial metals indices slow their upward trend, registering a weekly fluctuation.

PricePedia Financial Indices of Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Prices, in dollars

The non-ferrous metals heatmap signals a weekly increase in tin prices, against a decline in zinc prices.

Non-Ferrous Metals Price HeatMap, in euros

FOOD

All three financial indices of food commodities show a weekly downward price trend, particularly pronounced for the tropical index.

PricePedia Financial Indices Food Commodity Prices, in dollars

CEREALS

Heatmap analysis shows a decline in wheat prices and an increase in oat prices.

Cereals Price HeatMap, in euros

TROPICALS

The tropical commodities heatmap highlights a generalized price decline, more pronounced for arabica coffee.

Tropical Food Commodity Price HeatMap, in euros

OILS

The edible oils heatmap signals a 4.6% decline in the 3-day moving average of spot soybean oil prices, in euros.

Edible Oils Price HeatMap, in euros