LME copper price forecasts

In the industrial commodities sector, financial prices of non-ferrous metals are following an upward trend, supported both by fears of a reduction in supply and by the FED’s expansionary monetary policy. One base metal that has recorded particularly significant increases is copper, whose spot price quoted on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has almost reached levels close to $12000/tonne. In percentage terms, to date, the year-to-date growth in LME copper prices in dollars is about 35%. This variation is mainly attributable to ongoing production disruptions at major mines worldwide, including Grasberg, El Teniente, Constancia, and Quebrada Blanca.

In light of the sharp rises in the financial price of LME copper, it may be useful to ask whether the current upward trend is set to continue, or whether it is plausible to expect a phase of consolidation or price correction. In this article we will try to provide an answer to this question by analyzing different forecasting scenarios for the trend of the LME copper spot price, with the aim of identifying the most likely price levels for the next two years.

Implicit forecasts in futures contracts

The analysis of futures contract prices makes it possible to identify the current price at which sellers/producers are willing to sell a commodity at a future date.
Below is a comparison between the LME copper spot price and the corresponding futures price with December 2027 maturity.

From the comparison between spot and futures financial prices, it emerges that LME copper is in a phase of backwardation, that is, a situation in which the futures price is lower than the spot price. This information indicates that financial markets are anticipating a future decline in LME copper prices by December 2027. If this were not the case, no seller would agree to deliver copper for December 2027 at a price lower than the current spot price, while also bearing storage costs.

The current futures price of copper for December 2027 stands at $11605/tonne, a value which, although lower than the spot price, remains significantly higher than the average price of November 2025.

World Bank forecasts

As a second forecasting source, we report the World Bank forecast scenario, updated semiannually in April and October.
The chart below shows the latest annual World Bank forecast for LME copper, updated to October 2025.

The World Bank forecasts indicate an increase in annual LME copper prices over the next two years, reaching the threshold of $10000/tonne in 2027. In percentage terms, the World Bank expects LME copper prices in dollars to grow by about 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.

Consensus Economics forecasts

The third forecasting source considered in the analysis is Consensus Economics, which has the advantage of allowing the construction of a forecast range and monitoring its evolution over time between one survey and the next.
The chart below shows the distributions of LME copper prices forecast for December 2026, as recorded in the January and November 2025 surveys, with the aim of highlighting how the forecast interval has changed over the year.

In the survey of January 2025, conducted on a sample of 20 forecasters, the expected LME copper price for December 2026 was within a range between $6800 and $11023/tonne, with an average forecast of about $9500/tonne.
In the latest survey of November 2025, based on a larger sample of 27 forecasters, the forecast range widened further, with a minimum value of $7200/tonne and a maximum of $12500/tonne.
Compared to the beginning-of-year survey, November 2025 shows a significant increase in the average expected price for December 2026, which rose from about $9,500 to $10500/tonne, accompanied by a wider forecast range, which increased from $4223 to $5300/tonne.

PricePedia forecasts

The forecasts published in the PricePedia scenario are derived as a synthesis of the forecasts described above, giving priority first to financial expectations, then to Consensus Economics forecasts, and finally to those of the World Bank.
The chart below shows the PricePedia forecast scenario for LME copper spot prices, updated with information available up to December 4, 2025.

The PricePedia forecast scenario indicates a monthly increase in LME copper spot prices over the next two years, with future prices always lower than the current spot price and within the forecast range of the November Consensus Economics survey.
In particular, the average PricePedia estimate for LME copper in November 2027 is $11028/tonne, up by about 2% compared to November 2025.
On an annual average basis, LME copper spot prices are estimated at $10863/tonne in 2026 and $10990/tonne in 2027, with percentage changes of about 10% and 1%, respectively.

Conclusions

From the analysis of the various forecasting sources, it emerges that LME copper spot prices are expected to increase both on a monthly and an annual basis. However, all forecasters estimate future prices to be lower than current spot levels, equal to $11816/tonne. These forecasts are consistent with financial market expectations, which price in a December 2027 level lower than the current spot price, with a futures price currently at $11605/tonne.

The results of the November Consensus Economics survey confirm the high level of complexity in constructing a forecasting scenario for LME copper prices in December 2026, as evidenced by the particularly wide forecast range, between $7200 and $12500/tonne.
The World Bank’s annual forecasts foresee an upward trend in LME copper prices, estimating average prices of $9,800 and $10000/tonne for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

The PricePedia forecasts provide a synthesis of the various forecasting sources analyzed, giving priority first to financial expectations, followed by the forecasts of Consensus Economics and, finally, those of the World Bank.
For the next two years, the PricePedia forecasts also indicate a gradual increase in LME copper prices, with future values always lower than the current spot price and within the forecast range of the November Consensus Economics survey. On an annual basis, the PricePedia forecast for LME copper prices for 2026 and 2027 is $10863 and $10990/tonne, respectively.