Metals rise amid supply shortages and US government paralysis

After the sharp decline of the previous week, energy financial prices recorded a partial recovery in the following days, before weakening again from Thursday onwards. The recent drop is attributable to the reduction in geopolitical risk following the peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, compounded by rising U.S. crude oil and natural gas inventories and the escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China, which fueled fears of a slowdown in Chinese energy demand.
The initial recovery in oil prices reflects the modest production increase decided by OPEC+, which was below market expectations, and the announcement of new Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Kinef refinery, which temporarily raised tensions in energy markets.
Natural gas prices followed a similar pattern, with an increase early in the week followed by a slowdown toward the weekend. In particular, the Dutch TTF rose by more than 5 percentage points in a single day on Monday. The initial rally was supported both by renewed Russian bombings in Ukraine, which further damaged gas transport infrastructure, and by colder weather forecasts for the coming months.

The metals market continues the upward phase of recent weeks, supported mainly by precious and non-ferrous metals, while the ferrous segment remains the most stable. In China, ferrous metals recorded a slight price increase toward the end of the week, while in Europe prices remained relatively flat.

Among non-ferrous metals, a broad-based increase was observed, particularly for cobalt. The rise in cobalt prices was mainly driven by the decision of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which this week announced a permanent ban on exporters violating the new production quota system. The measure, aimed at tightening export controls and curbing fraud in the world’s main producing country—responsible for about 70% of global supply—has fueled expectations of reduced availability, triggering a rally in quotations on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
Copper continued its upward trend, supported by expectations of U.S. rate cuts and ongoing supply disruptions at major mines such as Grasberg, El Teniente, Constancia, and Quebrada Blanca. However, following the escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, it declined due to concerns over weaker Chinese demand.

The precious metals segment showed the strongest price increases, particularly for palladium, which nearly reached $1,500 per troy ounce. Both gold and silver hit new all-time highs, exceeding $4,000 and $48 per troy ounce, respectively. The suspension of key economic data releases due to the U.S. government shutdown is further fueling market uncertainty. The Federal Reserve will have to assess its next monetary policy move without access to updated official data, while investors continue to price in a possible rate cut at upcoming meetings.

In the food sector, a slight increase was recorded for oils and a decline for grains and tropical commodities. The sharpest drop occurred among tropical commodities, driven by lower cocoa prices, reflecting weaker demand prospects and improved weather conditions in West Africa, where abundant rains have favored crop development in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the world’s top two producers.

Protectionist measures are increasing

Escalation of U.S.–China trade tensions

On Friday October 10, President Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports in response to Beijing’s decision to reduce exports of rare earths, strategic materials for U.S. technology and defense sectors.
Trump described China’s move as an act of commercial hostility and announced the cancellation of his planned meeting with the Chinese leader during the APEC summit in South Korea.
The new tariffs would add to those already in place on Chinese imports, further intensifying tensions between the two superpowers.

EU proposal to protect the steel industry

The European Commission has presented a new proposal to protect the Union’s steel industry from the effects of global overcapacity, with the goal of ensuring the profitability and long-term sustainability of an industry considered strategic for Europe’s competitiveness and economic security.
The plan, which will replace the current steel safeguard measure expiring in June 2026, provides for a 47% reduction in duty-free import volumes, setting them at 18.3 million tons per year, and doubling the out-of-quota duty to 50%. In addition, a Melt and Pour^[1] traceability requirement will be introduced to counter evasion practices and strengthen market transparency.

President Ursula von der Leyen described the initiative as a decisive step toward EU competitiveness and strategic autonomy, urging the Council and Parliament to approve it swiftly. The measure responds to the demands of workers, companies, and Member States for structural protection of the European steel industry, currently under pressure from global overcapacity, high energy costs, and weak domestic demand. The proposal is fully compliant with WTO rules and will pave the way for negotiations with affected trading partners. Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein remain exempt from tariff quotas and duties, while Ukraine will be granted special consideration given the country’s exceptional circumstances.

ENERGY

The PricePedia Energy Index shows a partial recovery at the beginning of the week, followed by a subsequent decline in the following days.

PricePedia Financial Index of Energy Prices in USD

The energy price heatmap shows increases in European natural gas (Dutch TTF), Brent, and WTI, alongside declines in U.S. Henry Hub gas and Dubai spot prices.

Energy Prices HeatMap in EUR

PRECIOUS METALS

The financial index for precious metals continues to reach new record highs, fueled by the U.S. shutdown, but slows slightly toward the end of the week.

PricePedia Financial Index of Precious Metal Prices in USD

The heatmap analysis shows a general increase in prices, particularly for palladium.

Precious Metal Prices HeatMap in EUR

FERROUS METALS

The Chinese ferrous metals index shows a slight price increase, while the European index remains more lateral.

PricePedia Financial Indices of Ferrous Metal Prices in USD

The ferrous metals heatmap indicates a slight weekly increase in 3-day moving averages in EUR.

Ferrous Metal Prices HeatMap in EUR

INDUSTRIAL NON-FERROUS METALS

Both non-ferrous metal indices continue their upward trend, but the LME index slowed slightly on Friday following increased U.S.–China trade tensions.

PricePedia Financial Indices of Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Prices in USD

The non-ferrous metals heatmap highlights strong price growth for cobalt and increases for copper and aluminum.

Non-Ferrous Metal Prices HeatMap in EUR

FOOD COMMODITIES

Despite fluctuations, the financial indices for edible oils show a slight increase, while those for grains and especially tropical commodities declined.

PricePedia Financial Indices of Food Commodity Prices in USD

TROPICAL COMMODITIES

The heatmap shows a decline in cocoa prices, due to rising production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. A divergent trend was observed in coffee prices, with arabica remaining stable and robusta increasing.

Tropical Food Prices HeatMap in EUR

OILS

The heatmap shows a general increase in edible oil prices.

Edible Oil Prices HeatMap in EUR