PricePedia Scenario for June 2025

The PricePedia Scenario has been updated with information available as of June 4, 2025. Trade tensions remain in the background: although in recent weeks there have been openings for dialogue among the main players, aiming at de-escalation, in practice there has been a worsening of the measures implemented by the U.S. administration, as tariffs on U.S. imports of aluminum and steel from all partner countries (with the exception of the United Kingdom) have been raised from 25% to 50%. The immediate reaction of the markets is described in the article Commodities: sailing by sight.

Another factor negatively affecting the current scenario, especially in terms of global demand for raw materials, is the recent deterioration in growth expectations for the Chinese economy (see China drives commodity prices downward), the world's largest consumer of raw materials. All else being equal, a lower internal absorption capacity of its raw material production leads to a greater tendency to export, effectively resulting in an oversupply on global markets. This translates into a prolonged weakness in the global industrial cycle^[1], the trend of which is shown in the chart below.

Global industrial cycle, June 2025 scenario

On a yearly basis, the weakening of global demand for raw materials leads to a forecasted average decline of -0.6% in the global industrial cycle index in 2025-2026. A slight recovery is expected in 2027, bringing the index back to the average levels of 2016.

Forecast of purchasing material prices

The price dynamics of raw materials and purchasing materials are affected by the deterioration of the current economic environment, represented by the global industrial cycle. In aggregate terms, this tends to create favorable conditions for purchasing departments to renegotiate lower purchase prices in 2025-2026.

The following table shows the annual changes in euro prices for the main commodity aggregates in the PricePedia Scenario: Industrials^[2], Total Commodities^[3], Total Energy, and Total Food.

Table 1: Annual variation rates (%) of PricePedia Aggregate Indices, in Euro

In aggregate, euro-denominated prices of purchasing materials are expected to decline over the next 24 months. On an annual basis, the decrease is expected to average around -6.4% in 2025 and 2026, with a substantial stability in 2027 (-0.5%).

Breaking down the total commodity aggregate into its subcategories, a similar but more pronounced trend can be observed for energy commodities. These are expected to decrease by -14% on average this year, followed by a less steep (yet still double-digit) decline in 2026.

The trend in industrial raw materials is also expected to decline on a yearly basis in 2025-2026, though at moderate rates of change, never lower than -2%. From a monthly trend perspective, the lowest point is forecasted during the first three months of 2026. In the following months, prices are expected to slightly rise, returning to June 2021 levels, which are over 20% higher than the 2019 average.

As for food commodities, prices are expected to increase only in 2025, supported by the growth recorded during the first five months of the year. In 2026 and 2027, prices are projected to decline by -6.3% and -3.8%, respectively, effectively returning to 2024 levels.