LME zinc price forecast

Over the past year, financial zinc prices quoted on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have followed an upward trend, in line with the performance of other non-ferrous metals. Starting from May 2025, when the average monthly price stood at $2646 per tonne, LME zinc prices increased by nearly 30% over the year, reaching current spot levels above $3400 per tonne.
The price dynamics were initially driven by a contraction in supply, linked to production disruptions and slowdowns in several mining areas worldwide, and were subsequently supported by rising energy costs following the attack carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran.

In light of the strong increases already recorded, it is worth asking whether the upward trend in zinc prices is expected to continue over the next two years or whether a slowdown or possible correction is more likely. In this article, we will attempt to answer this question by analyzing several forecasting sources with the aim of identifying the most likely price levels for the coming two years.
LME zinc prices will be used as the reference, as they represent the main global financial benchmark.

Forecast Implied by Futures Contracts

A first source, always useful to consider for forecasting purposes, is the implied forecast embedded in futures contracts, which makes it possible to identify the price at which producers are currently willing to sell a product for delivery at a future date.
The chart below compares the LME zinc spot price with the corresponding futures price for delivery in December 2027.

Comparison Between LME Zinc Spot and Futures Prices

The comparison between the two prices shows that the LME zinc market is currently in backwardation, with the December 2027 futures price standing at $3261 per tonne, $155 per tonne below the current spot price of $3416 per tonne.
This indicates that financial markets are incorporating expectations of a future decline in LME zinc prices. Otherwise, no seller would be willing today to commit to delivering zinc in December 2027 at a price below the current spot level while also bearing storage costs and associated financing charges.

World Bank Forecast

The second forecasting source considered is the World Bank scenario, updated as of April 2026.

World Bank Forecast for LME Zinc Spot Prices

For 2026, the World Bank forecasts a 4.6% annual increase in zinc prices, with an average annual price of $3000 per tonne, followed by a decline to $2750 per tonne in 2027.
The increase expected in 2026 is attributable to the strong price rise recorded at the beginning of the year, still supported by supply constraints and higher energy costs.
These factors will help keep the 2026 annual average elevated, although below the levels observed during the first five months of 2026, which were close to $3300 per tonne.

The subsequent downward phase in prices is driven by expectations of persistent weakness in the Chinese real estate sector, which accounts for approximately half of global refined zinc demand. World Bank analysts expect only modest growth in zinc demand, which will not be sufficient to maintain structural upward pressure on prices in 2027, especially in light of the anticipated gradual increase in mining production.

Consensus Economics Forecast

The third forecasting source examined in this analysis is Consensus Economics, which makes it possible to build a forecast range for LME zinc prices based on a survey conducted among several commodity forecasters. By comparing survey results from different dates, it is also possible to monitor how analysts’ expectations evolve over time.
The chart below shows the distributions of LME zinc prices forecast for December 2027, as reported in the January and April 2026 surveys, with the aim of highlighting how the forecast range changed between the two surveys.

In the survey conducted in April 2026, forecasts for zinc prices in December 2027 were higher than those reported in the January survey. The increase in energy costs caused by the outbreak of the Persian Gulf conflict led to a rise not only in zinc spot prices but also in the corresponding futures prices.
However, the various forecasters agree on a future downward trend in zinc prices. For December 2027, the LME zinc forecast range from the April survey lies between $2400 and $3400 per tonne, with an average forecast close to $3000 per tonne, more than $400 per tonne below current spot price levels.

PricePedia Forecast

The PricePedia forecast for LME zinc prices was developed as a synthesis of the forecasts described above, giving priority first to financial market expectations, then to Consensus Economics forecasts, and finally to those provided by the World Bank.
The chart below presents the PricePedia forecast scenario for LME zinc spot prices, updated with information available through May 1, 2026.

PricePedia Forecast for LME Zinc Spot Prices

The PricePedia forecast scenario points to a gradual decline in zinc prices through April 2028. The PricePedia forecast for December 2027 stands at $3150 per tonne, placing it between the Consensus Economics survey average ($3000 per tonne) and the futures-implied forecast ($3260 per tonne).

In terms of annual averages, the dynamics projected by PricePedia are similar to those of the World Bank, with a 14% increase in 2026 followed by a 2.5% decline in 2027, resulting in average annual prices of $3280 and $3200 per tonne in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Summary

All the forecasting sources analyzed agree on a reversal of the current upward phase in LME zinc financial prices.
Expectations of lower prices are mainly attributable to persistent weakness in the Chinese real estate sector and to the anticipated recovery in supply, which is expected to more than offset the moderate growth projected on the demand side.

The forecast range for LME zinc prices in December 2027 is between $2400 and $3400 per tonne. Within this range, the PricePedia forecast lies in the upper-middle segment, with an expected price of $3150 per tonne, positioned between the Consensus Economics average forecast ($3000 per tonne) and the futures-implied forecast ($3260 per tonne).