Polyethylene: the rise of Chinese exports in a market marked by supply shortages

In the analysis: "Tensions in International HDPE prices" the current phase of tension in international polyethylene prices was highlighted, which recorded significant increases following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Polyethylene, in fact, in addition to being significantly affected by the increase in production costs, being a derivative of the crude oil refining process, shows a high dependence on supplies from the Persian Gulf countries, which in recent years have taken on an increasingly central role in global production and international trade of polyethylene.
The competitive advantage deriving from direct access to energy feedstocks such as oil and natural gas has allowed Gulf countries, with Saudi Arabia in a leading position, to establish themselves among the world’s most important polyethylene exporters. The loss of supplies from these countries, combined with the increase in production costs, has therefore led to an abrupt contraction of supply in the global market, resulting in increases in international prices.

In the most recent period, however, part of the polyethylene shortage is being partially offset by the significant increase in Chinese exports. China, traditionally a net importing country of polyethylene, has in fact taken advantage of the reduction in global supply by substantially increasing its exports of this product.

Analysis of Chinese polyethylene exports

The following chart shows the historical series of Chinese export flows of HDPE polyethylene and LDPE and LLDPE polyethylene, based on data collected by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.

From the analysis of the chart, the surge in Chinese polyethylene exports following the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz emerges.
If up to February 2026 Chinese HDPE polyethylene exports stood at around 40 thousand tons, in March and April 2026 they jumped respectively to about 95 and 270 thousand tons, with monthly changes of +125% and +185%.
In particular, in April 2026, for the first time, Chinese HDPE exports exceeded corresponding imports, which amounted to 257 thousand tons. This figure is particularly surprising considering that between January 2015 and April 2026, Chinese HDPE import volumes were on average more than 34 times higher than export volumes.

A similar dynamic was also observed for LDPE and LLDPE exports, albeit with lower intensity compared to HDPE. In April 2026, Chinese polyethylene exports (LDPE+LLDPE) reached around 95 thousand tons, recording an increase of more than 300% compared to February 2026 levels.

In light of the significant expansion of Chinese polyethylene exports recorded following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it may be useful to analyze the FOB price trends of Chinese exports in order to verify whether this dynamic has diverged, or not, from the evolution of international polyethylene prices.

Analysis of international polyethylene prices

The table below presents a comparison of the monthly changes in international prices of HDPE, LDPE and LLDPE polyethylene, expressed in euros per ton.

Table of monthly changes in international polyethylene prices, expressed in euro/ton

From the analysis of the table, two main aspects emerge:

• Chinese and US polyethylene prices were the ones that reacted most quickly to the energy shock caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz;
• considering the entire period following the start of the conflict with Iran, FOB prices of Chinese polyethylene exports showed more contained monthly changes compared to those recorded in other international markets.

This latter aspect indicates that, since the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Iran, Chinese export prices are contributing to partially containing the rise in international polyethylene prices. This evidence is consistent with what is reported in the article: "The Chinese industry appears less vulnerable to the shock of international energy prices", which highlights the current strengthening of Chinese competitiveness in global markets, due to its ability to absorb, at least partially, increases in international energy prices.

Conclusions

Following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting tensions in global polyethylene supply, China, traditionally a net importing country of this product, has strengthened its role in the international market through a significant increase in HDPE, LDPE, and LLDPE polyethylene exports.
At the same time, FOB prices of Chinese polyethylene exports have shown more contained increases compared to those recorded in other international markets, thus helping to mitigate, at least in part, the upward pressure on international polyethylene prices.