Impact of de-escalation on financial commodity prices

How have shipping costs changed following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

Published by Luca Sazzini. April 10, 2026 .

Conjunctural Indicators Commodities Financial Week

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Since the beginning of the war in the Persian Gulf, the volatility of financial prices of energy commodities has increased significantly. Oil prices, after rising well above $100/barrel compared to February average values of around $70/barrel, have been characterized by contrasting daily fluctuations, with changes even exceeding 10%, influenced by contradictory statements from President Trump regarding the duration and evolution of the conflict in Iran.
In the past week, the main news affecting energy markets was the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Following the news, Brent and WTI recorded daily drops of -13% and -16% respectively, returning to levels below $100/barrel. Similar impacts were also observed in the European natural gas market, with TTF Netherlands falling by 14% in a single day, as well as in refined petroleum products, especially diesel and gasoline.

Geopolitical risks, however, remain unresolved, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed also following the Israeli attack in Lebanon, which occurred immediately after the truce agreement. Therefore, in the absence of a lasting agreement, energy markets are likely to continue being driven by sudden shocks linked to the evolution of the conflict.
This volatility is also expected to spill over, at least partially, to other financial commodity markets through both direct and indirect channels.

Financial prices of precious metals have shown a slight increase following the decline in oil prices and U.S. inflation data, which rose slightly less than market expectations. The negative correlation between oil and precious metals is currently linked to fears of excessive growth in energy inflation, which could prompt central banks to adopt more restrictive monetary policies. Such a scenario would reduce the attractiveness of gold compared to government bonds, such as U.S. Treasuries, which, in addition to being considered safe, also offer yields linked to interest rate trends.

In the industrial metals segment, there is substantial price stability for ferrous metals, alongside a moderate increase in non-ferrous metals, mainly supported by the dynamics of copper and tin. Aluminum, however, follows a different trend, showing a decline due to expectations of a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. Such a scenario would favor the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the risk of further disruptions or damage to production facilities in the Persian Gulf.

In the agricultural commodities sector, a generalized decline in prices is observed, affecting cereals, tropical commodities, and edible oils. In particular, a drop in sugar prices is noted, amplified by statements from India’s food secretary indicating that the government does not intend to introduce export restrictions during the year.

Effects of the war in Iran on transport costs

The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has worsened maritime transport conditions, forcing many vessels to divert to alternative routes, slowing or interrupting transit and, in some cases, exposing them to the risk of attacks. For these reasons, it is useful to analyze to what extent these factors have affected international maritime transport costs.
To this end, the analysis focuses on two key composite indices of international maritime transport costs: the World Container Index (WCI), produced by Drewry, and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), provided by the Baltic Exchange.
The former measures the trend in average container shipping costs on major East-West global trade routes, providing an up-to-date overview of international freight rates.
The BDI, on the other hand, reflects the cost dynamics of maritime transport for dry bulk cargo, such as iron ore, coal, or food commodities.
Below are the dynamics of the two indices described above over the past 6 months.

Freight rates for bulk carriers and container ships

Container ships	Bulk carriers

Analysis of the two charts shows that since the outbreak of the war in Iran, bulk carrier freight rates have remained stable, while container shipping rates have started to increase significantly. In particular, the WCI has risen by more than 20% since the start of the conflict, currently reaching $2 309/FEU.
All major routes monitored by Drewry have recorded price increases, with routes from China to the United States rising by more than 30%.
These data highlight a generalized increase in container shipping costs, despite the absence, for now, of a full-blown logistics crisis. Current WCI levels ($2 309/FEU) are significantly lower than those recorded during the 2024 logistics crisis linked to Houthi attacks, when prices reached around $6 000/FEU, and even further below the historical peaks of 2022, which exceeded $10 000/FEU.