PricePedia scenario for steel tube prices

When will steel tube prices reverse their current downward trend?

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Ferrous Metals Forecast Steel tubes Forecast
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In the article “PricePedia scenario for ferrous metals 2026-2027”, it is highlighted that the PricePedia outlook anticipates a recovery in European ferrous metals prices over the next two years. In particular, the analysis shows that, with the exception of ferroalloys, the product families expected to experience the strongest recovery are steel tubes.
The chart below presents PricePedia forecasts for the European aggregated indices of welded and seamless steel tubes.

PricePedia Forecast of Aggregated Indices for Welded and Seamless Steel tubes
PricePedia Forecast of Aggregated Indices for Welded and Seamless Steel tubes

The PricePedia forecast for steel tube prices, represented by the dashed line, highlights a clear trend reversal compared with the historical dynamics observed in recent years. Following the decline from the historical peaks recorded in the second half of 2022 — approximately 40% for welded tubes and 35% for seamless tubes — both aggregated indices are expected to recover over the next two years. Between January 2026 and January 2028, PricePedia forecasts price increases of 11% for welded tubes and 16% for seamless tubes.

The main factors supporting this scenario include rising demand for industrial metals linked to the energy transition, the recent recovery in China’s FOB export prices for metals, and the entry into force of CBAM. Each of these drivers is expected to contribute to higher European prices for hot-rolled coils as well as long steel products. As highlighted in the articles “Price determinants of welded steel tubes” and “Price determinants of unwelded steel tubes”, these represent the main price determinants for welded and seamless steel tubes, with price transmission elasticity coefficients from input prices to tube prices above 0.9. This means that, all else being equal, increases in production input prices should be almost entirely transmitted to average steel tube prices.

Price forecasts for steel tubes traded in the EU

The table below reports annual percentage changes in prices for different steel tubes traded in Europe, distinguishing between welded and seamless products.

Table of annual percentage changes in welded and seamless steel tube prices
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Welded steel tubes
Threaded gas tubes −18.57 −8.76 −5.78 +2.57 +5.65
Galvanized gas tubes −12.34 −5.47 +0.01 −3.32 +0.63
Diameter > 168.33 mm ≤ 406.4 mm −14.19 −10.23 −6.14 +3.31 +5.09
Diameter > 406.4 mm −2.36 −4.78 −1.39 −7.11 −1.04
Non-round (thickness ≤ 2 mm) −21.91 −8.23 −3.73 +8.49 +5.00
Non-round (thickness > 2 mm) −21.21 −7.61 −7.26 +10.71 +6.01
Seamless steel tubes
Line tubes −4.67 −14.45 −6.67 +0.19 +5.86
Threaded gas tubes +0.43 −8.33 −8.59 +0.24 +4.76
Drilling tubes +17.84 −20.91 −27.60 −4.97 +15.54
Diameter ≤ 168.3 mm −5.12 −17.48 −3.66 −0.30 +3.90
Diameter > 168.33 mm ≤ 406.4 mm −1.87 −18.11 −5.38 +2.37 +2.88

Galvanized welded gas tubes and welded tubes with diameters above 406 mm are the only products for which price declines are expected over the next two years. Both products still show relatively high price levels, as their reductions in recent years have been significantly smaller compared with other tube categories. Market forces are therefore expected to push them progressively toward a more balanced equilibrium.

Among welded steel tubes, the strongest price growth is expected for non-round section products, with estimated increases between 8% and 10% in 2026 and between 5% and 6% in 2027, depending on thickness.
Regarding seamless steel tubes, the most notable increase is expected for drilling tubes, whose prices in 2027 are forecast to rise by more than 15% compared with 2026. In 2026, however, the average price is expected to remain about 5% below the 2025 level, as the in-year recovery will not fully offset the “carry-over” decline with which 2025 ended (−12% year-on-year as of December 2025).

Conclusions

In the PricePedia scenario presented at the beginning of February, prices of both welded and seamless steel tubes are projected to increase significantly. This outlook reflects the structural models adopted by PricePedia, in which tube prices depend on the dynamics of production input prices and on the degree of balance between supply and demand expected to prevail across different markets.