Commodity prices fall due to unexpected increase in stocks

Oil prices fall despite OPEC+ halting production increases

Published by Luca Sazzini. Nov. 7, 2025 .

Conjunctural Indicators Commodities Financial Week

Stampa

At the meeting held on November 2, OPEC+ members agreed to cancel the production increases scheduled for early 2026. This marks the first interruption in the gradual easing of production cuts, motivated by expectations of weak demand and fears of oversupply.
However, the decision to suspend the supply increase at the beginning of the new year was not enough to support oil prices, which, after slight declines earlier in the week, fell more sharply following the unexpected rise in U.S. inventories. The oil market remains in a phase of strong supply surplus, although uncertainties persist regarding the new U.S. tariffs on Russian crude, which could reduce supply and contribute to a potential price recovery. Market attention remains focused on Russian exports to assess whether the United States and Europe will effectively limit supplies from the so-called "shadow fleet".

In the U.S. natural gas market, Henry Hub prices continue to rise, supported by lower temperatures and increased heating demand, while European markets showed strong and contrasting fluctuations.
The early-week increase was triggered by concerns over future LNG flows from Nigeria, after President Trump threatened to cut all aid to the country and warned that the United States is preparing for "possible actions" against Islamist militants in Nigeria if the government does not stop attacks against the Christian minority. These tensions were compounded by forecasts of lower-than-expected wind power production and concerns over U.S. LNG shipments, following an unplanned outage at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas. However, LNG supplies from Norwegian flows proved sufficient to restore stability to TTF Netherlands prices, with a relatively contained weekly variation.

Ferrous metals prices showed heterogeneous dynamics, with growth in Europe and a decline in China. In particular, prices of European hot-rolled coils and Turkey LME steel scrap increased, while rebar and iron ore traded on Chinese SHFE and DCE exchanges declined.
Among non-ferrous metals, weekly declines were observed, with a slight recovery on Thursday. The most significant contraction affected copper, which, after reaching new historical highs last week supported by easing trade tensions and production interruptions, reversed following statements by Codelco, the Chilean mining giant, indicating that this year’s and next year’s production could exceed 2024 levels despite the recent production halt at the El Teniente mine.

In the food commodities sector, price fluctuations were mixed for both grains and tropical commodities. Vegetable oils declined, driven by a drop in palm oil due to increased stocks in Malaysia, lower-than-expected Indian imports, and rising production in Indonesia.

China Foreign Trade Data

In October, Chinese exports in U.S. dollars fell by 1.1% year-on-year, sharply slowing compared to the 8.3% growth recorded in September.
Exports to the United States experienced the largest contraction, down 25% year-on-year, while other significant declines were recorded in flows to Africa, Latin America, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Imports remained positive but also saw a sharp year-on-year drop, falling from +7.4% YoY in September to a modest +1% YoY in October.
In terms of volume, monthly declines were recorded in imports of chips, petroleum products, oils, and grains, while metals such as iron, steel, and copper increased.