PricePedia Scenario for September 2025

The PricePedia Scenario has been updated with information available as of September 3, 2025. The outlook for weak global industrial production, representative of global commodity demand, is confirmed. The latter is, in fact, expected to grow only modestly in 2025-2026.
The sluggish trend in industrial production translates into a continuously declining global industrial cycle^[1] throughout 2025-2026.
It is worth recalling that the currently published scenario is the one with the highest probability of realization. However, the forecast risks associated with the global industrial cycle, and therefore with global commodity demand, are predominantly on the downside.

The following chart shows the two-year forecast of the global industrial cycle index developed by PricePedia.

Global industrial cycle, September 2025 scenario

The downward trend of the global industrial cycle is expected to continue during 2025 and 2026, with annual growth rates of -0.7%, confirming what was reported in the previously published August 2025 scenario. In 2027, a recovery is expected, although limited, at +0.5%.

The forecast for purchasing material prices

In aggregate terms, the prices of purchasing materials for companies over the next two years are also expected to reflect the same dynamics of the global industrial cycle and the related downside risks. On average in 2025, commodity prices in euros are expected to record an aggregate decline of -6.1% compared to 2024 average values. In 2026, the price decrease is expected to continue, although at a less intense rate than in the previous scenario, amounting to -5.5%.

The following table shows the annual variations in euro prices of the main commodity aggregates included in the PricePedia Scenario: Industrials^[2], Commodity^[3], Energy, and Food.

All subcategories that make up the Commodity index are expected to record a downward trend in 2025-2026, with the exception of Food commodities. The prices of the latter are, in fact, expected to increase by nearly +10% in 2025, driven by tropical goods already showing an increase of over +40% in 2025. In 2026, the index is expected to decline slightly, by -0.9%.

As for energy commodities, the forecast confirms a price decrease of -13.3% and -11.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. From a medium-term perspective, prices are expected to approach the average levels of 2019, still remaining almost +6% higher.

The aggregated forecast for core industrial commodities is also negative, with a decrease of -2.1% this year and -0.6% in 2026, in line with the dynamics of the global industrial cycle and the greater downside risks. However, at the level of individual commodities, there are several upside risks, especially for those commodities whose global supply is concentrated in countries belonging to the "The Rest" area of the world^[4].